DRBR: Chicago Bears

This may be one of the longest DRBR videos in this section because the questions about D'Andre Swift are going to be plenty this season. A lot of people probably feel like with Ben Johnson at the helm, Caleb Williams in year two, all the weapons around him — that D'Andre Swift could be in for a huge season. I've seen some people labeling him as a potential top-12 option. And while I'm not willing to go that high with him, I do think we should probably take a look back and see what the DRBR says about D'Andre Swift.

Since he's entered the league — with the exception of one season — the DRBR scores for D'Andre Swift are pretty bad. The one season was with Ben Johnson in Detroit, where D'Andre Swift really showcased some elite playmaking ability. Something that he was known for coming out of college. But for a guy that was considered an elite efficiency running back in college, he certainly has not showcased that at the NFL level.

Now, for this past year: scores — 53 in yards after contact, 53 in tackles avoided per attempt. We can all agree that last year in Chicago, the offense was a mess. So maybe not last year — but what about two years ago when he was in Philadelphia, in an elite offense? What did the DRBR score show then? Well, at that point, yards after contact was still a 52 for D'Andre Swift — it was actually a little bit lower. Now, tackles avoided per attempt was at 67. So he almost crept up into that 70 range, where we saw a little bit of yellow in that score line there — but still not quite enough.

So when you take a look at what he did in his final year in Detroit, well, that is when things looked way better for D'Andre Swift. His final year in Detroit: 67 in yards after contact. So the one thing that we have seen — yards after contact hasn't really been his strong suit, which is okay. He's not that type of a running back. Tackles avoided per attempt — his last season in Detroit, he scored 85. One of the elite avoided tackle running backs back from that season.

But... oh boy, that's where things don't get any better for him. Because the year prior in Detroit — 52 in yards after contact, 39 in tackles avoided per attempt. Can't be doing that. Cannot be doing that. Is an elite playmaker at the college level. You got to score better than that. And then go back a few more seasons to his rookie year: 52 for yards after contact — another poor score there. 53 for tackles avoided per attempt.

So really, outside of two seasons — his final year in Detroit with Ben Johnson as his offensive coordinator, and his first season — tackles avoided per attempt looked great. His one year in Philadelphia — tackles avoided per attempt looked good as well. So what are we going to get from him this year?

Well, if we're only getting tackles avoided per attempt — so let's say he shoots those tackles avoided per attempt scores and he gets up into the 65 to 70 range — well, how much volume is he going to get? How often will Chicago pass the ball? Will he be able to create yards after contact? How many touchdowns will he score?

Because based on what we see right here, even if we were to make an adjustment to tackles avoided per attempt, it's not getting all that much better for a guy that, realistically, you couldn't really worry about being in your lineup an awful lot last season. You couldn't rely on him. He wasn't winning any weeks for you.

Ben Johnson's going to have to work some magic. Really, his key to success is going to be the passing game. Can he get the checkdowns from Caleb Williams to help support the volume with a bump up in tackles avoided per attempt? We need tackles avoided per attempt back into — not an elite range — but a considerably higher range, along with a much better score in the volume area, especially in the passing game.

If he can do those two things, D'Andre Swift will find himself inside the top 24. If he cannot combine those two things, I think we're going to see a disappointing season once again.