Same face, new place—Josh Jacobs going from the Las Vegas Raiders to the Green Bay Packers. This could end up being quite the step up for him. He is going to be playing on a much better team in 2024 than he had in 2023. But there's one cause of concern—the DRBR was not kind to Josh Jacobs last year.
Now, when I was working on this section for the 2023 draft guide, I took a look at his 2022 DRBR numbers, and Josh Jacobs scored a very respectable 61 in yards after contact but an elite 92 in tackles avoided per attempt. I used this tool to predict an absolutely insane season from Josh Jacobs in 2023. Believe it or not, his scores got even better heading into the 2023 season. He scored a 92 in tackles avoided per attempt again, but his yards after contact jumped all the way up to 72.
Josh Jacobs was looking like one of those running backs that, regardless of the team he was on, he was going to have everything he needed to be successful. But he just could not overcome Jimmy Garoppolo and Aidan O'Connell, and he took an absolute plummet last season into some depths that we have not seen since he entered the league. A score of 51 in yards after contact and a score of 43 in tackles avoided per attempt will not get it done.
But this is where the DRBR is not an end-all, be-all. Just because we look at these numbers for 2023 doesn't necessarily mean that Josh Jacobs is on a downward trend. That's why we look at a trend over multiple seasons. I'm glad I was able to give you that information because now you know that in his two previous years with a better quarterback under center and weapons around him, Josh Jacobs was able to be highly efficient. We could end up seeing that again in 2024 with the Green Bay Packers.
Jordan Love is a huge step up. The offensive line should be better than what he had in Las Vegas. Even though they don't have any prime-time names at wide receiver, it doesn't mean that they will not get the job done in Green Bay. Josh Jacobs has an opportunity to get back to those same numbers that we saw early in his career when he was in Las Vegas. If he does those things, he could be primed for another huge season like we saw a couple of years ago.
Now, the biggest factor here is that Green Bay may end up staying a little bit more balanced. They've got Marshawn Lloyd, who they just picked up in the draft, and AJ Dillon was also re-signed to a contract. It wouldn't surprise me if Josh Jacobs isn't run into the ground by the Green Bay Packers. They might try to manage him throughout the year, keeping him to about 15-18 touches per game. Maybe we'll see about 20 or 22 sometimes, but they'll likely try to keep him from putting on too many miles during the season so he's good to go come playoff time.
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