Remember, we don't hate players; we just hate ADP. And that's really the problem when it comes to De'Von Achane right now. People saw the explosiveness last year and want it on their roster this year in 2024, and I do not blame them. But his current projected ADP is going to be late 2nd to early 3rd round—a top 10 drafted running back in fantasy football is a hefty price tag.
Now, can he do that? Absolutely. He has the skill set and plays in the right offense to do it. But last year, this guy finished as a top 24 running back and missed eight full games. He had five games where he scored over 20 fantasy points. He averaged 7.8 yards per carry, which is not normal and not sustainable. He scored a touchdown once every 11.8 touches—that is redonkulous. He had a breakaway run rate of 12.6%, the highest in the NFL. If you don't know what breakaway run rate is, that's the percentage of carries that resulted in 15 or more yards. The guy was just unstoppable when he was on the field.
But now, he has a top 10 expectation in 2024. Over the last three years, on average, the running back 10 scores 214.2 fantasy points a season. That comes out to be right around 1,350 total yards and 10 total touchdowns with 40 receptions in order to hit that amount of fantasy points.
Now, there is no way that we can sit back and just expect him to average 7.8 yards per carry. CMC finished second in that metric last year, and he was at 5.4 yards per carry. But let's just say that De'Von Achane can still dominate in this area and beat CMC and average six yards per carry, which is not likely, but for fun, we're going to use it. So, with six yards per carry and his average 7.3 yards per reception, that would put his total yards per touch at 6.65. If we take 1,350 total yards needed and divide it by that 6.65, that means he's going to need right around 203 total touches.
In 2023, he really only played nine full games, and in those games, he averaged 14 touches a game. If he keeps a similar role in this offense this season and averages 14 touches per game, he would need to play at least 15 games in order to hit that 203-touch mark. And don't forget, we would still need him to score at least 10 touchdowns and rack up 40 receptions. Is he going to be able to stay on an NFL field for 15 games? That is the biggest question.
But really, that's not the only thing he has going against him this season. Miami is stacked on offense once again. Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, they brought in Odell Beckham, they brought in Jonnu Smith, they still have Raheem Mostert, and they just drafted another running back out of Tennessee, Jaylen Wright. Now Wright, he's another 4.3 burner just like De'Von Achane, except Wright is 5'11", 210 lbs, and can take a little bit more of a beating.
Now, we already know that head coach Mike McDaniel is going to use multiple running backs in his offense. He's done it the last couple of years. Now sure, Raheem Mostert is getting a little bit old, but he's coming off a season with almost 1,200 yards and 21 touchdowns. Any type of three-way split in this backfield is going to make it hard for De'Von Achane to get those touches. Just for added reference, Mostert played 15 games last year and only had 234 total touches. Could I see the two-way split to start with Mostert and Achane? Absolutely. But could I see them going to a three-way split to keep everyone healthy all season long? I really could.
And then just to make matters even worse, Miami ends the season against five tough run defenses: the Jets twice, Houston, San Francisco, and then Cleveland in the fantasy championship. That is not ideal. Personally, I'd be looking for guys that are going a little bit after Achane, guys like Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, and Joe Mixon. If you take Achane in the second round and he doesn't get the touches, you could be in trouble and he could bust all over in your lineup.
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