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Busts: Rachaad White - TB






My bust at the running back position for 2024 is going to be Rachaad White. He was definitely a guy last year that I was not on, and for the most part, he ended up proving me wrong. But the premise behind why I didn't like him last year was actually spot on. It was just some other things that ended up happening that propped his fantasy value way up.


It's the fact that David Canales, their offensive coordinator last year, gave Rachaad White so many touches. He ended up tying Christian McCaffrey for the most touches in the league. But now, David Canales is gone, and you have to wonder whether or not Rachaad White is going to get all of those touches once again, especially since Bucky Irving is now on the team, who Tampa Bay just drafted.


Typically, in a situation where I feel like a guy is going to be losing some touches, I want to look towards his efficiency. If he's really, really efficient, then hey, losing a few touches may not be that bad. But Rachaad White, unfortunately, isn't great in that area. During the first two years of his career, Rachaad White has been one of the worst running backs in all of football when it comes to his efficiency.


In yards per attempt, he finished 48th among running backs in 2022 and 45th among running backs in 2023. For yards after contact per attempt, he finished 51st in 2022 and 45th in 2023. And then for avoided tackles per attempt, he finished 45th in 2022 and jumped up to 38th in 2023.


So I decided to dissect his games just a little bit more to try and figure out why he was so inefficient but still was one of the top 12 running backs in the league and consistently finding his way into the top 12 on a weekly basis. And it really had everything to do with touchdowns. Last season, Rachaad White had eight RB1 games. In all but one of those eight games, Rachaad White was able to find the end zone. In those eight games, he ran for 550 yards on 152 attempts, good for 3.61 yards per attempt.


In order to consistently be an RB1, you have to average right around 12 to 15 fantasy points per game. And because Rachaad White is not nearly efficient enough to get to that based on his yards alone, he's got to either A) keep up all of that volume from last season or B) score just as many, if not more, than the nine touchdowns he had last year.


Because then you take a look at his five RB2 games. In his five RB2 games, he only scored a touchdown one of those times. Now his yards per attempt were actually a little bit better in his RB2 games but maybe a little bit misguided because in those five games, he ran for 295 rushing yards on 71 attempts, averaging 4.15 yards per attempt. But he had rushing yards on 15 carries in week 12 against Indianapolis. If you take that game out, he only averaged 3.48 yards per carry in his RB2 games.


So once again, those numbers just go to show you it was the touchdowns. His nine touchdowns are what propelled him up to being an RB1. He was never able to make his way into the RB1 conversation based on volume alone, and that will be something that's tough to do for a majority of running backs. I'm not saying every running back out there is becoming an RB1 based on volume alone, but a lot of your top running backs are having some RB1 games where they just don't end up finding the end zone.


Realistically, you need to be rushing close to or for over 100 yards and add a couple of catches with it to find yourself in 12 to 15 half PPR point territory to be an RB1. Rachaad White was never able to do that. Even with all of the volume he was getting, he was so inefficient he was having trouble reaching that plateau based on his volume alone. And if he loses some of that volume in 2024 because Tampa Bay decides to go with Bucky Irving a little bit more often, he's going to find himself in a lot of trouble. So he's going to have to make up for it by A) scoring nine or more touchdowns again this season or B) figuring out his efficiency and getting way higher than in the 30s and 40s for a majority of his rankings.


Because of all that, I'm just not going with it this season. Rachaad White's going to be a bust for me, and if you draft him to be an RB1, unfortunately, I think you're going to be disappointed.

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In the video of "safest RBs" and listed here as a Bust. Isn't FF great!?!? 😁

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