My 2024 bust at the quarterback position is going to be Josh Allen this season. After being the QB1 in three of the last four years, I think his reign at the top has finally come to an end. There are a couple different reasons why I just can't buy into Josh Allen this season, and I think the fact that losing Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis is not being talked about nearly enough in the fantasy community.
Interesting fact: Stefon Diggs and Josh Allen never missed a game together since Stefon Diggs was traded to Buffalo back in 2020. Before Stefon Diggs got to Buffalo, Josh Allen was really struggling to reach his ceiling. In the 28 games that Josh Allen played before the Stefon Diggs trade, he only completed 15 of 27 passes per game for a 55% completion percentage. He was also only averaging 184 pass yards while throwing for 1.07 touchdowns per game and 0.75 interceptions per game. But since the trade, Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs have played 66 games together. On average per game, Josh Allen completed 23 of 35 passes for a 65% completion percentage—a 10-point jump. His average pass yards went from 184 per game all the way up to 264 per game. He also saw a one touchdown per game increase, from only 1.07 before Stefon Diggs to 2.07 afterwards, and his interceptions per game actually jumped up to 0.87.
Over the last four years, Josh Allen has had a veteran wide receiver presence around him. Of course, Stefon Diggs, but he also had guys like Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders. Josh Allen had some younger guys join him as well—Gabe Davis, who could be that primary field stretcher, Dawson Knox, and Dalton Kincaid last year. But now, his top three wide receivers look way different. We've got rookie Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, and Khalil Shakir, who has been on the team for a couple of years now but really hasn't had that large of a role. And again, we're bringing back Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid. The weapons that Josh Allen has had around him are changing greatly. Some of that veteran presence that he connected with from day one is now gone.
Based on current ADP trends, Josh Allen figures to be the number one quarterback drafted this season in fantasy football. But I'm willing to bypass that capital and take a quarterback after him. If you're really that focused on taking a quarterback early in your draft, you could pass on Josh Allen and grab a guy like Lamar Jackson. They've beefed up the run game this year, those wide receivers are another year older, and he's coming off of an MVP season. What about Patrick Mahomes? He's got a couple of field stretchers on that team again now and absolutely could see some numbers like we saw a couple of years ago. You've even got Jalen Hurts. If you're that interested in rushing upside, why are we not drafting Jalen Hurts with better weapons over Josh Allen?
I'm just not buying into Josh Allen this year. I think we underestimate how important Stefon Diggs was to the growth of Josh Allen and how inconsistent he could become if he doesn't feel comfortable with the weapons around him now. I'm going to go ahead and pass on him at his current ADP, and I'll take a shot at several guys afterward if I really want a quarterback this early.
Fellow Bills fan, I definitely think Allen will take a step back in fantasy points as Joe Brady has shown he likes a more balanced attack and it's just hard to believe Allen will have 15 rushing TDs again. I reached on Allen last year in early Rd 2 and it paid off, if he still available in round 3 this year I have to take him! JA17 will win you weeks by himself even without Diggs.
As a Bills fan. Diggs was fazed out of the second part of the season last year. JA won’t be QB 1 this year for fantasy, but he will be QB 2. Just my opinion.
Feel like the rushing upside is too unbelievable to overlook