Jaylen Warren has an opportunity to have a really special season in 2024. In fact, if it weren't for Najee Harris, I would be picking him as a next top 12 breakout candidate. His efficiency last year was absolutely insane, and all of those numbers point to a big season coming up. He was third among running backs in yards per attempt, he was third among running backs in yards after contact per attempt, and he was first among running backs in missed tackles forced.
While Najee Harris enjoyed his most efficient season that he's had since entering the league, Jaylen Warren blew all of his numbers out of the water. In 2024, I expect a much more 50/50 neutral split in this backfield than Najee Harris just leading the way in volume. But that's why they're going to hurt each other and not help each other. Sometimes we see these backfields where one guy is going to have an opportunity to be a little bit of a higher-caliber player while the other guy may end up being a lot safer (see the Detroit Lions). But in Pittsburgh, I don't see it being quite that way.
Najee Harris is probably going to be that main back. He's probably going to see about 55 to 60% of the running back snaps, while Jaylen Warren will end up seeing the rest of those. Najee Harris, to me, is a safer back. I think he's a guy that could end up as a low-end RB2, but I think Jaylen Warren's upside puts him in that same area as well. One of the main reasons is I just don't trust Arthur Smith. I don't know what he has planned, and I don't know what his final outcomes will end up being. Based on what we've seen with his time in Atlanta, it could definitely be one of those situations where one week it's Najee and the next week it's Jaylen Warren. Then the next week, maybe Najee Harris gets off to a fast start and he sees the majority of the touches.
I think they're going to ride the hot hand, which is going to lead to a lot of inconsistent weeks overall. The numbers will look good at the end of the season. Jaylen Warren, though, if you're looking for upside, will end up being the guy that offers the most of that. And right now, and probably through the rest of draft season, he'll also have the better ADP.
Comments