When Alvin Kamara finally took the field in Week 4 last season, people could not get over his targets. The dude saw double-digit targets in two of his first four games last year, but that work slowly started to disappear as the season went on. From Weeks 4 through 8, his first five games of the season, he was an RB1 every single game. Then, in his next two games after that, he ended up finishing as an RB2. But then the Saints went into their bye, and coming out of it, Kamara just wasn't the same producer. From Weeks 12 through Week 17, he only gave you one RB1 performance. He also finished as the RB14, 16, and 20 before ultimately finishing as the RB40 in each of his final two games of the year.
My concern about Alvin Kamara this year is the fact that over the course of the last three seasons, his efficiency numbers have slowly started to decline each season. I mean, this past season he finished with 0.12 avoided tackles per attempt, which was tied for 47th in the league with his teammate Jamaal Williams. He also finished tied for 46th with 2.51 yards after contact per attempt and only averaged 3.86 yards per carry last season. Alvin Kamara's value in 2024 is going to be tied to his volume. It's really hard to believe that after three straight years of declining performances and efficiency, he all of a sudden gets back to what he was doing early in his career.
Kendre Miller, though, last season saw some really nice efficiency production on his few touches, and if Alvin Kamara isn't careful and can't get back to what he did at one point in time, Kendre Miller is going to start eating into his touches. Kamara will still make an impact in the passing game, but on the ground, he could start to be faded out as the season goes on.
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