Now you all know there is not a bigger Nico Collins truther than myself. I was the one last offseason telling everyone and their mother to draft this guy, and he had a great year—a top 10 year—a year in which he outscored the likes of Davante Adams, Ja'Marr Chase, and Deebo Samuel, all while missing two games himself.
But now he's a fantasy darling, and people absolutely love him, which means he's going to be drafted somewhere right around the top 15 overall wide receivers. But the wide receiver 15 on average scores 193 fantasy points a year in half PPR scoring. That comes out to be 75 catches for 1,150 yards and seven touchdowns. That's only five catches for 147 yards and one touchdown less than the year he just had last year, which was a career year.
Now, last year with C.J. Stroud, we saw Nico Collins catch 73% of his targets. So in order for him to have a chance at 75 catches, he's going to need right around 104 targets. Last year, he had 109. So we're really asking Nico to have a crazy similar season this year to what he did last year.
But you know what is not super similar? The Texans offense this year. They just added Stefon Diggs. They added Joe Mixon. And not to mention their overall defense got better. Plus, we know that C.J. Stroud's favorite target is coming back in Tank Dell. He should be 100% healthy to start the season. Now, last year Nico benefited from not having Tank Dell in five games. That really helped give him a larger target share. But did you know that in the nine games that Tank and Nico played together, both of them scored exactly 125 fantasy points?
We know that Noah Brown is still in the mix. Robert Woods is old as dirt, but he's still in the mix. How about guys like John Metchie, Ben Skowronek, and the list continues to go on and on in Houston. But all of that pales in comparison to the addition of Stefon Diggs. They did not bring in Stefon Diggs to not throw him the football, have him get pissed off, and turn this young locker room sour. He's going to get targets; they're going to throw him the football. And I would not be surprised if we see more running in Houston this year than we saw last year. The offensive line is upgraded, and there's a new three-down capable running back in Joe Mixon.
But what about this defense? They're not bad, and if they can keep scores low, we may not see Houston playing from behind as much, having to throw the ball as much each and every week. So we have a great competition for targets, an upgraded running game, the increased possibility of a reduction in passing volume, but yet you have to spend a third to fourth round pick on a wide receiver and just hope that he can repeat a career year from the year prior.
I mean, come on. Things went the way of Nico Collins in 2023, but there is no guarantee that's going to happen this year. I love Nico Collins, but this Texans offense is going to be a headache weekly when it comes to fantasy football.
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