If we can keep Hollywood Brown on the field all year long in a Mahomes offense, he could be in line for a career year. Now, he's missed eight games over the last two seasons and really had to deal with below-average quarterback play due to injuries to Kyler Murray. But now, in Kansas City, he has a chance to be a part of something special as they go for the three-peat.
Here's the biggest issue: at the time of this recording, we have no idea what exactly is going to happen to Rashee Rice in 2024. If he plays, that's going to hurt the target share of Hollywood Brown. If he's suspended for any length of time, Hollywood could be in line for some early-season monster numbers. Now, we already know that Travis Kelce is going to get his, but we have to expect that rookie Xavier Worthy is going to take some time to get going in this offense. Even last year, Rashee Rice didn't start getting a bigger role until week 12.
I need to really handle this though how I deal with other players who have off-field issues or injuries. If we just do not know the situation at the time you're drafting, I probably just pass on the player. Now, with everyone out there expecting Rice to be suspended, it's moved Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy up into rounds 6 through 8 or so. But what happens if Rashee Rice plays or barely gets suspended? All of a sudden, he becomes the early-round option we want in this offense, and that's going to move Hollywood Brown to right around the seventh round or so and Worthy back to around the eighth or ninth.
It really comes down to how much do you want to gamble at the time of your draft because if you don't know the final situation, you're basically just playing roulette. But if Hollywood Brown can get anywhere near 100-plus targets in this offense this season, the guy is going to way outproduce his ADP.
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