WR: Davante Adams - LV

The volume that Davante Adams has seen here the last couple of years is next level—175-plus targets now in back-to-back seasons. Can you just imagine if more of that volume was actually catchable? Last year, he had a catchable target rate of only 66.9%, that rate 69th overall among all NFL wide receivers. But is it going to get any better here in 2024?

Well, it should as long as they stick to the plan of starting the guard dog, Gardner Minshew. Last year, Minshew delivered a 75.6% catchable target rate to his top wide receiver in Indianapolis, Michael Pittman. If Adams could see a boost of almost 10% of his catchable targets, that's enough to really put him back inside the top 10 fantasy wide receivers.

There is one other addition to this offense, though, this offseason that's going to take away some targets, and it's the rookie tight end Brock Bowers. But remember, he doesn't need that huge volume if more of the volume he's going to get is actually catchable. Now, even though I would love for Adams to have an even better quarterback situation, at least we can look at Gardner Minshew and say that he should keep Adams' floor safe.

I mean, last year the guy had nine games in single digits, and that's an absolute fantasy killer. With the addition of Brock Bowers and the unknowns at the quarterback position, we can't look at Davante Adams as just being safe now. Does that mean I have no interest in him this season at all? No, that's not the case. However, if I draft Davante Adams early, I'm not going to be taking any more risks at the wide receiver position until later on in my draft.