TE: Kyle Pitts - ATL

2024 Season Summary

Receiving Production

• 47 receptions, 602 receiving yards, 4 touchdowns

• Averaged 12.8 yards per reception (consistent with career range of 12.6–12.8)

Opportunity & Efficiency

• Target share: 20.2% (4.4 targets per game)

• Air yards share: 13.9% (~36.6 air yards/game)

• Average depth of target (ADOT): 8.4 yards

Season Trend

• First 8 games:

  • 29 receptions, 419 yards, 3 TDs

  • 5 games with 8+ Half-PPR points

• Final 9 games:

  • 18 receptions, 183 yards, 1 TD

  • Only one game over 10 Half-PPR points

2025 Fantasy Football Outlook

1. Bounce-Back TE1 Scenario

• Pitts reclaims a 15–18% target share (~80–90 targets)

• Projection: ~650 receiving yards, 5–7 touchdowns

• Fantasy output: ~6.5–8 PPR points per game

• Upside dependent on improved QB play and trust from Penix

2. Bell-Cow Pass-Catcher Scenario

• If Pitts becomes a reliable first-read target for Penix, he could approach 100 targets

• Projection: 700+ receiving yards, 6–8 touchdowns

• Fantasy ceiling: low-end TE1 with strong explosion metrics

3. Stagnation/Rust Scenario

• Target share remains low (<10%), routes remain inconsistent

• Projection: 50–60 targets, ~600 yards, 4–5 touchdowns

• Fantasy output: borderline TE2 with 5–6 PPR points per game

Headliners Take

Kyle Pitts enters 2025 as a high-variance fantasy option. His elite athleticism, contested catch ability, and explosive upside remain unchanged—but his role has been inconsistent. After fading late in 2024, Pitts now enters his second season in Zac Robinson’s system with a new QB in Michael Penix Jr.

The big question is usage. If Pitts earns more first-read targets and builds rapport with Penix, he has top-8 TE upside. But if his role continues to drift, he may again fall into the risky TE2 bucket.

Bottom line: Pitts is the ultimate "swing-for-upside" TE pick in 2025. Draft him as your TE2 with the hope he finally delivers like the unicorn we’ve been promised.