Breakouts: Dalton Kincaid - BUF

That’s right. 2025 is the year that Dalton Kincaid breaks out.

His rookie ceiling was real. In 2023, Kincaid erupted with 73 catches, 673 yards, and two touchdowns over 16 games. He averaged 42.1 receiving yards per game, establishing Bills rookie tight end reception and yardage franchise records.

He was on pace to build on that, starting 2024 strong before injuries hit. He missed three games due to knee injuries but also played through a PCL injury. He still produced 44 receptions, 448 yards, and two touchdowns in only 13 games, averaging 34.5 yards per game—down from the 42.1 of his rookie year.

His catch rate also dipped from 80.2% down to 58.7%, and the yards per target dropped from 7.4 to 6 yards—both attributable to injuries. But his health and strength are on the rebound in 2025.

The Bills GM confirmed that Dalton Kincaid returned this offseason leaner, stronger, and fully healthy.

You have to remember that there is no alpha wide receiver one in this offense. Stefon Diggs has been gone for a while. That’s creating more of an opportunity in this “everybody eats” spread-type offense that saw 13 different players score receiving touchdowns in 2024.

Now, yes, there is a little bit of tight end competition with Dawson Knox, who is now signed through 2026. And while he plays a good role for this team, he doesn’t have the ceiling of Dalton Kincaid, who has elite efficiency potential.

Among tight ends with 50+ targets in 2024, Kincaid ranked second in targets per route run—behind only Trey McBride—and 10th in yards per route run. Both are strong underlying metrics despite dealing with injuries. It demonstrates that he’s naturally efficient with touches and could thrive once fully healthy.

We also have the factor that he plays in a Josh Allen offense. Josh Allen has been putting up massive passing volume, which is ideal for tight ends.

The Bills have valuable young pass-catchers in guys like Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and newly added wide receivers Josh Palmer and Elijah Moore, but none of those guys have proven to be a WR1 target hog. There is plenty of opportunity in this offense for Dalton Kincaid to succeed.

Now the beauty of all this is—he’s being drafted right around TE12.

But this is why it all adds up:

• He was a strong rookie stud two years ago. Rookie tight end records show his ceiling.

• In 2024, he was hurt. It wasn’t a talent issue—injuries suppressed production.

• He’s now fully healthy and improved physically.

• Elite efficiency metrics hint at a breakout if volume increases.

• He’s in a Josh Allen-led offense—one of the league’s top scoring environments.

  
  

That is great value for a guy who’s barely being drafted as a top-12 tight end.

Dalton Kincaid is squarely in post-hype sleeper territory—fully healed, entering his third NFL season, with minimal proven competition and positioned in one of the league’s top passing offenses.

Expect him to pop back with right around 70 receptions, 800 yards, and five touchdowns—landing him as potentially a top-five tight end in fantasy. Draft him confidently in the mid rounds and just look for the breakout.