WR: Puka Nacua - LAR

Man, how the record-breaking rookie year for Puka Nacua has made him damn expensive in 2024. The current wide receiver six overall in a lot of drafts, he had 160 targets, 105 catches, 1,575 total yards, and six touchdowns. Last year was the perfect storm of production for Puka Nacua. But here's why I'm a little bit worried this year.

With the year that he just had, he finished as the wide receiver six, so he basically needs to repeat the same season he had last year just to return draft value. And that is not going to be easy. Don't forget, Cooper Kupp missed four games of the year and barely played in week 11 against Seattle due to injury. Demarcus Robinson didn't even really get a role in this offense until week nine, then he ended up super hot. They re-signed him and brought him back in 2024. Kyren Williams missed four games in the middle of the season, which forced LA to have to throw the ball more. Tyler Higbee missed a game down the stretch. All of these things led to Puka Nacua getting all kinds of volume. But is that volume repeatable in 2024? More than likely not.

With Cooper Kupp fully healthy, a full year of Demarcus Robinson, and don't forget about Tutu Atwell and a running game now of Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, that's going to be tough. But let's just look at last year, right? Let's look at the games they played together last season. In the games in which Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua played together, Puka averaged 8.6 targets per game. In the games that Puka was out there without Cooper Kupp, he averaged 11.8 targets per game. Also, in games they played together, Kupp had more games with 10-plus targets than Puka did.

Now we take into account Demarcus Robinson coming in hot at the end of 2023. From week nine on, Puka's average targets dropped to 7.8 per game. If we take 7.8 targets and multiply it over a 17-game season, that comes out to be 132 targets. If that's the case, he's going to be somewhere around the neighborhood of 130 targets, 91 catches, 1,292 yards, and five touchdowns—the equivalent to 247 fantasy points in half PPR scoring.

247 fantasy points is right around where the WR13 finishes. The WR6 is a borderline first-round pick; the WR13 is on the verge of being a third-round pick. Puka just needs so many things to happen for him to be considered a safe top-six wide receiver, things that I really don't see happening in 2024.

Now, that does not mean he's going to have a bad season. If he ends up with 90 catches for 1,300 yards and a handful of touchdowns, the guy had a great year—just not a top-six type of year.