WR: Marvin Harrison Jr. - ARI

And here we have one of the shiny new toys in fantasy football: Marvin Harrison Jr. That really has to be because we are routinely seeing rookie wide receivers go the hell off in the NFL. Now, we know that Harrison comes in with a pedigree—his dad is a Hall of Fame wide receiver. He's one of the top prospects at the position that we've seen in quite some time, maybe since Ja'Marr Chase a couple of years ago.

He goes to the Arizona Cardinals, a team with a big-time need for a wide receiver one. A team that isn't very good, they're going to be losing and having to throw the ball a lot as well. Right now, he's sitting as a verge top 10 wide receiver. Drafted over the last three years on average, the wide receiver 10 scores right at 212 fantasy points in half-PPR scoring. That comes out to be 90 catches for 1,200 yards and eight touchdowns. On the surface, that seems super doable. It's even more doable when you break it down on a weekly basis: that's only five catches for 70 yards a game and a touchdown every two weeks.

There is nothing standing in the way of Marvin Harrison Jr. getting 130-plus targets this season in this offense. Over the last few years, Kyler Murray has delivered a catchable target rate of right around 75% to his top wide receiver, so that's definitely going to put 90 catches in the realm of possibility. I really feel like it's going to come down to touchdowns, and Arizona has only had a pass catcher get to eight touchdowns one time in the last seven years. Now, that one time was in 2021 when Kyler Murray was throwing the ball to DeAndre Hopkins. There aren't any other alpha wide receivers in this offense, though, that are going to command a large target share. Everything is pointing towards Harrison being able to hit these numbers in 2024.

But we cannot forget this is all based on expectations. They're set high, but we have never seen him do it on an NFL field yet. I really look at it like this: the ceiling is huge, and the depth of fantasy-viable wide receivers is extensive. I'm taking the risk on Marvin Harrison Jr. this year personally, but I will be sure to have adequate wide receiver depth as the draft goes on, just in case. How few and far between will those WR1 performances come? That is what could hurt his overall outlook on the season.