WR: Deebo Samuel - SF

Deebo Samuel has to be one of the hardest players to figure out on a weekly basis. He finished last year as the wide receiver 12 overall, averaging 14.2 fantasy points per game, which is absolutely great. But Deebo had over 30% of his season-long scoring racked up in just two games last season. He literally scored 237 fantasy points last year, but 64.3 of them came in weeks 13 and 14 alone. He had five finishes inside the top 10 but also had six finishes outside the top 30.

We already know he isn't the most durable wide receiver—he's never played a full season in his career. His rush attempts that carried him to a huge 2021 season have decreased every year since. He doesn't get very many looks deep down the field; he was ranked as the wide receiver 82 in deep targets just last year. He relies heavily on yards after the catch, which is fine because he's great at that, but that's also one of the main reasons why he gets banged up so often.

Now, he's going to be projected as a top 15 wide receiver this year, probably going somewhere around the third round. The wide receiver 15 on average scores 193 fantasy points a year—so right around 1,100 total yards, eight total touchdowns, and 70 receptions. Those are for sure numbers that Deebo can hit. He scored over 193 fantasy points in two of the last three seasons. But I am terrified to draft a player that is so boom-or-bust weekly. I don't expect a huge game every single week, but to finish outside the top 30 more times than you finish inside the top 10 at that price tag is really hard to accept.

He's going to score the points, and he's going to be great for like five or six weeks a year, but every single week you're going to throw him in your lineup and be terrified that he only scores single-digit fantasy points like he did six times just last year.