TE: Dalton Kincaid - BUF

2024 Season Summary

Usage & Production

• Games Played / Starts: 13 games played, 9 starts

• Receptions / Targets: 44 receptions on 75 targets (58.7% catch rate)

• Yards / Touchdowns: 448 yards (10.2 YPR), 2 touchdowns

• Efficiency: Yards per target dropped from 7.4 to 6.0; yards per game fell from 42.1 to 34.5

Playing Time & Health

• Snap Share: Fell from 79% in 2023 to 57.5% in 2024

• Injuries: Missed 3 games with a PCL injury; also dealt with a collarbone issue

Key Factors Behind the 2024 Decline

1. Injury ImpactThe PCL injury affected his burst and route timing, leading to a dip in efficiency and target volume.

2. Efficiency RegressionSharp drops in catch rate, YPT, and yards per game point to inconsistency and diminished explosiveness.

3. Target DilutionBuffalo used a broad “everyone eats” approach—13 different players scored touchdowns, limiting Kincaid’s red-zone upside.

   
   
   
   

2025 Fantasy Outlook

Role & Team Context

• Health & Recovery: Fully recovered from 2024’s injuries; reportedly participating in full during offseason practices

• Depth Chart Clarity: Dawson Knox remains in a supporting role, and no new TEs were added via draft or free agency

• 12-Personnel Usage: Buffalo continues to prioritize tight end involvement in their offensive sets

Volume & Opportunity

• Target Floor: Saw ~5.8 targets per game in 2024; that number could increase with better health and more stable snaps

• New WR Competition: Elijah Moore joins the team, but the TE spot remains structurally important in the offense

Headliner Take

Dalton Kincaid enters 2025 as a strong bounce-back candidate with the potential to return to low-end TE1 status—and even flirt with high-end TE1 upside. Despite a down year in 2024 caused by knee and collarbone injuries, he still posted elite underlying usage metrics:

• 2nd among all TEs in targets per route run (28%)

• 1st in efficiency vs. man coverage

• 6th vs. zone coverage

  
  

If he stays healthy, there’s a clear path back to 80+ targets and 600+ yards with 5–6 touchdown upside. In a tightening TE landscape, Kincaid offers a great blend of floor and ceiling in the middle rounds of 2025 drafts.