The dude has a year where he struggles with some minor injuries and some bad quarterback play, and people have just lost all interest in Pat Freiermuth. Well, that's their loss. He may currently be the tight end 15 or so overall, but that's 125th overall in Fantasy Drafts, so he's into the double digits.
Diontae Johnson is now gone. He's been replaced by the likes of Van Jefferson and rookie wide receiver out of Michigan, Roman Wilson. But most importantly, we now have two quarterbacks in Pittsburgh that like to throw the ball to their tight end. Over the last 5 years, on average, Russell Wilson targets the tight end 20% of the time. Fields, over his three-year career, on average, targets his tight ends 34% of the time. So regardless if it's Justin Fields or Russell Wilson, we know we're going to have a quarterback that looks the way of the tight end.
Now, since 2020, the Pittsburgh Steelers, on average, target their tight ends 117 times a year. But I can hear you out there, "Jake, they got Arthur Smith and we hate Arthur Smith because of what he did in Atlanta last year." If he did anything in Atlanta last year, it was target his tight ends, because they did it 174 times. Now, over the last two seasons of below-average quarterback play in Pittsburgh, they've averaged 538 pass attempts per season. But that number could easily grow here in 2024. Fields, Wilson, it doesn't matter—they're better than anybody that's been in Pittsburgh the last couple of years.
So based off of all those damn numbers, I think we can say that Pat Freiermuth should be in the neighborhood of anywhere between 85 to 100 targets. Now, Freiermuth has a career catch percentage of 69%, which is right around 70 catches if he can see that target share. We know the guy isn't going to be a deep threat; he's only going to average right around 10 yards per reception. So 70 catches for 700 yards, even with no touchdowns, that's going to make him better than the tight end 15. Even if the guy only has two touchdowns on the year, he's going to find a way to fall inside the top 12 overall tight ends on the season.
So in conclusion, we have an offense with targets up for grabs, we have a better quarterback in this offense, and we have an offensive coordinator that likes to target his tight ends. If we can see Pat Freiermuth with four or five touchdowns, this dude could easily finish top 10 at the position.
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