Sleeper: Josh Palmer - BUF

We probably just need to dismiss 2024 altogether at this point when it comes to Josh Palmer. Now, I'll admit I was wrong on him last season. I thought 2024 could be big for him, but I'm going to double down. I was wrong last year. We're going to be right this year. Everything was just too much for Palmer last year to succeed. Quentin Johnston had a little bit of a breakout.

They drafted Ladd McConkey — he ended up being elite last year. It was a low-volume passing attack to begin the season. It was a new coaching staff, new offensive scheme. Really, everything went against him last year being successful in that offense.

But now, he's going to go to the Buffalo Bills, and there's a real shot for him to have some of the same success that we saw flash back in 2023. So, let's go ahead and jump in the wayback machine right now. In 2023 with the Chargers, he didn't play a whole lot in Weeks 1 or 2, but then Mike Williams went down with an injury in Week 3, and things changed for him moving forward. From Weeks 3 through 7, he played in four games: 29 targets, 16 receptions, 336 receiving yards, and 1 touchdown.

But then he got hurt in Week 8 and missed Weeks 9 through 14 — that was a ton of missed time. When he came back in Weeks 15 and 16, he played well again: 12 targets, 9 receptions, 160 receiving yards, and a touchdown. Unfortunately, then he missed Week 17. And in Week 18: 10 targets, 6 receptions, 44 yards. So it was a roller coaster — a lot of good, missed time, good, missed time, and then good.

But those six healthy games back in 2023 — I don't think people realize just how good those games were. In fact, he averaged 8.5 targets, 5.16 receptions, 90 receiving yards, and 0.33 touchdowns per game during that time span. If you were to look at a 17-game projection, it could have been a massive season had he stayed healthy: 144 targets, 87 receptions, 1,530 receiving yards, and 5 touchdowns. If you do the math, that would have been 226.5 PPR fantasy points, which would have ranked as the WR7 last season.

Now, do I think that he would have put together that type of year in 2023? No — that's way too much. Do I think he's going to do that in 2025? No — still way too much. But it's fun to look at what that projection was because he was playing that well. And you have to wonder, with the Buffalo Bills, if he's going to be able to have some similar performances this year.

Khalil Shakir — he's a volume guy, not a big-play guy. He's going to play out of the slot. Dalton Kincaid — is he finally going to take a step forward? Keon Coleman showed some flashes last year but wasn’t really all that good in the past. Josh Allen has always had a guy on the outside who is a true vertical threat. And from time to time, he will hook up with that vertical threat. Think of all the times we thought Gabe Davis was going to be something in Buffalo.

At only 26 years old, Josh Palmer is entering his prime. So this could be the perfect fit. And if the Buffalo Bills thought that Keon Coleman was going to be that type of receiver, they probably don’t invest any money in Josh Palmer. Not that it was an exorbitant amount or anything like that, but they probably look at making the offense better elsewhere if they thought Keon Coleman was going to be a true X that just stretches the field. That’s not what he’s going to be, but that’s what Josh Palmer could end up being.

Is he a better best ball play? Could end up being. But based on his ADP being basically non-existent this season, you're going to get a guy in the later rounds of your drafts that — if anything were to happen to Coleman or Kincaid or Khalil Shakir — the volume is going to end up being there. He can probably be the number three target on this team. With an injury, he could be the number two target on this team.

He is a guy that maybe has a little bit of risk, but based on where he's being drafted — even if he doesn’t do anything — I’m sure you can exchange him for someone on the waiver wire a few weeks into the year.