Last season, Jonathan Taylor missed the first four games of the season and then he saw a reduced workload the next two games as he built himself back up to game speed. During the first six weeks of the season, Zack Moss was the RB6 on the year. People who had decided to grab him off the waiver wire or drafted him once they found out Jonathan Taylor was going to miss time were definitely rewarded with some great fantasy performances.
Then, Jonathan Taylor was the full-time starter again. Zack Moss basically went to the background, and it wasn't until an injury in week 12 that Zack Moss found himself as the potential starter for weeks 13, 14, and 15. This was great for fantasy owners—they were getting him back at a time when he absolutely could help them into and in the fantasy playoffs. But during those three weeks, Moss was only able to finish as the RB26, RB36, and RB19—one top-24 performance.
When the Cincinnati Bengals decided to move on from Joe Mixon, they signed Zack Moss in his place. But I wouldn't necessarily say that Zack Moss is definitely the starter because the contract they signed him to could end up being just a one-year deal. Yeah, technically it's a two-year deal, but after the first year of the contract, the Cincinnati Bengals can opt out for only 1.5 million in dead cap space. Whereas if they keep him on contract for the second year, they're going to have 4.25 million working against them in the cap. So there's no real financial tie in making Zack Moss the primary running back all season long.
Chase Brown could end up being a guy that steals enough time from Zack Moss to start taking over as the lead back. So here's what I see to begin 2024: Zack Moss will be the primary back and he's going to get a majority of the workload in the red zone. It would not shock me if he becomes a frustrating fantasy player at the beginning of the season because maybe he's not getting a ton of volume but he's scoring touchdowns every once in a while. Because of that, it's enough just to make him viable for our lineup but not really enough to make him a worthy weekly start.
But unless Zack Moss is able to do more with less at the beginning of the season and show that he is definitely by far the better running back than Chase Brown, Chase Brown will start to eat into those touches. Chase Brown will primarily see the work in the passing game. If he's making an impact there and Zack Moss isn't really doing a whole lot on the ground with his volume, Chase Brown could force his way into more touches that way as well.
Zack Moss right now, for me, yes, should be the draft pick over Chase Brown because I do believe Zack Moss is going to end up getting first shot. But I'm going to tell you right now, if you draft Zack Moss and you have deeper benches, I would highly encourage you to also take Chase Brown. For me personally, I don't know where I'm willing to draft Zack Moss, but it certainly isn't very high.
I’m really unsure why people are so ready to see Zack Moss lose his job to Brown. When push comes to shove, the back that is superior at pass pro will be the one to own.