Over the last four years, the injuries have started to rack up for Joe Burrow: a rib fracture, a torn ACL, MCL, PCL, torn meniscus, finger dislocation, knee strain, MCL sprain, calf strain, and most recently, a ligament tear in his right wrist. Now, a fully healthy Joe Burrow that plays a full season is a top-five fantasy quarterback, but in reality, he's only been a top-five quarterback one time in his four years in the NFL. Now, he was also the quarterback eight overall in 2021. That is no slouch of a year by any means, but it's because of those couple of successful seasons that we now have a high price tag once again in 2024.
So in order for him to return that draft value, what does he need to do with his arm to hit that Draft Day price tag? Well, it's going to be right around 4,400 yards passing and 32 passing touchdowns to go along with right around 10 interceptions. But he's also going to need about 100 yards rushing and two rushing touchdowns as well to fulfill where he's being drafted at. Now, it's going to be really hard for him to hit those numbers if he misses any games here this season.
For his career, he averages 278 passing yards per game. In order to hit 4,400 passing yards on the season, he would need to play 16.2 games, which is a full season. He has a career touchdown percentage of 5.1%, which means in order for him to hit 32 passing touchdowns, he's going to need to throw the ball 630 times this season. His career high was back in 2022 when he threw the ball 606 times that year. How about interceptions? Any year in which he's played at least 16 or more games, he's had at least 12 interceptions. Can you start to see why I'm a little bit worried here for Joe Burrow?
But now, he's also coming off a pretty serious wrist injury. There are a lot of people out there saying there's a chance that Joe Burrow is never 100% again, and how can we say that and then say we also need 4,400 yards, 32 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions through the air? There's no more Joe Mixon in the backfield; it's Zack Moss and Chase Brown. Can they eat up a bunch of touches to take some of the pressure off? Well, I sure hope not, not if he has to throw the ball 630 times.
We now have a new offensive coordinator. Brian Callahan is gone; he's the head coach of the Tennessee Titans. We no longer have Tyler Boyd. However, we do have the addition of rookie wide receiver Jermaine Burton. So really, it doesn't worry me too much that we lost Boyd. If you spend a fifth-round pick on Joe Burrow and he plays all 17 games, you have hit the jackpot. If you spend a fifth-round pick on Joe Burrow and he can't stay healthy, it is going to hurt your team. I've said this for a few other quarterbacks this season, but if you find yourself investing in Joe Burrow early, be sure to get some pretty solid insurance in the later rounds just in case.
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