We have gotten spoiled in fantasy football. Every time a rookie wide receiver comes out and doesn't go the hell off in year one, a lot of people kind of look at him as mid or average. But that's just not the case. Look at Zay Flowers last year. He had only 77 catches but had 858 yards and five touchdowns, but really didn't catch his stride until the end of the season. From weeks 10 through 17, he was the wide receiver 17 overall and averaged right at 13 fantasy points per game. During that same span, he only missed being a top 12 wide receiver by nine points.
There were no big-time additions in Baltimore this offseason that are really going to challenge to take away a large chunk of targets from Zay Flowers. He's going to be the top wide receiver option here once again in Baltimore. Rashod Bateman hasn't done anything in three years; it's really hard to count on him at this point. Are we really worried about Nelson Agholor? The guy hasn't had over 500 yards receiving in four of his last five years played.
Now sure, Mark Andrews may remain weapon number one overall in this offense, but he's basically missed 11 games over the last two years. Now, I can hear you dynasty players out there saying, "Yeah, but they drafted wide receiver Devontez Walker," a wide receiver that never even had a thousand yards receiving in college. It's like Rashod Bateman all over again. Does he have talent and skill? Sure. Is he going to put it all together in year one? That's not something we can count on in this Baltimore offense.
So we go back to Zay Flowers. He finished sixth among all NFL wide receivers in route wins and was seventh overall in target separation. The facts are this: the guy can get open on a football field. He scored touchdowns in four of his last five games of the season. The game finally started to slow down for him as the season went on.
Now, last year he averaged 1.91 fantasy points per target, which is a very doable number each season. So if Zay Flowers can get just 20 more targets in 2023, he's going to have enough fantasy points to flirt with the top 15 overall wide receivers. Do you think that Zay Flowers could see 128 targets this season? Because if you do, the chance for a breakout is there.
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