Breakouts: Tank Bigsby - JAX

No, no, no. This video is not a mistake.

If you've been around for the last couple of years and you're watching this, you're probably trying to figure out why Kyle, of all people, has Tank Bigsby listed as a breakout this season. And I have been very critical of Tank Bigsby. His rookie year, I didn't think that he would come close to touching Travis Etienne's job. And he didn't.

His rookie season: 50 rushing attempts, 132 rushing yards, and two rushing touchdowns.

But Tank Bigsby looked a lot different last season. You could see it on film and you could see it in the numbers. Sometimes you have to take a step back and just realize players get better—and that's what happened with Tank Bigsby last season. A big step up: 168 rushing attempts, 766 rushing yards, seven rushing touchdowns. He looked way better.

But it wasn't just the numbers or the film. It was the explosiveness that set him apart.

Just listen to some of these efficiency numbers from last season. When you take a look at the running backs that had 150 or more attempts, Tank Bigsby ranked 13th, averaging 4.56 yards per carry. But then he ranked second, averaging 3.74 yards after contact per attempt—one of the best running backs last season at creating extra yards after first contact.

And then avoided tackles per attempt? He averaged 0.227, fourth among running backs. He was one of only three running backs last season to create 40 or more missed tackles on fewer than 200 carries—him, Kenneth Walker, and, believe it or not, Antonio Gibson.

It was his explosive playmaking ability last season that led him to being the starter by the end of the year. 31.6% of his yards came on runs of 15 or more yards—eighth in the NFL among running backs.

Now, last season did have some up-and-down performances. The old coaching staff continued to go back and forth between Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby, but Bigsby was by far the better running back all season long. And it definitely showed when the coaching staff would give him double-digit carries in a game.

Last season, in games where he had double-digit carries, he averaged 11.84 fantasy points, which would have been good for RB21 when ranking all backs by fantasy points per game. In those games, he delivered two RB1 performances, two RB2 performances, and three flex performances—he would’ve been a starter every single game.

Unfortunately, at the end of the year, he suffered an ankle injury in Week 11, so his stats at the end of the year weren't quite as strong. But overall, even with that ankle injury, he still finished very high.

New Jags coach Liam Coen has been very complimentary of what Travis Etienne may be able to do. But at the end of the day, if you have a running back that is clearly the best out of the group, you’re going to give him the touches. Tank Bigsby just needs to hold on to the football. If he starts fumbling again, he could lose his job quickly.

But Travis Etienne is being drafted well ahead of Tank Bigsby, which is kind of crazy given how good Bigsby was last season—and all the numbers show it.

Now, Tank Bigsby is still going to have to compete for touches this season. Travis Etienne is still on the roster right now, and they drafted Bhayshul Tuten out of Virginia Tech. But you have to imagine that in his first year, Liam Coen is going to go with the guy who is consistently performing better.

It appears that Travis Etienne could be regulated to the passing game, seeing a lot of work on third down or if Jacksonville is playing from behind. But for as good as Tank Bigsby was on the ground last season, he should see a majority of the work everywhere else.

And if he can go over 200 carries this season, he should be very close to 1,000 rushing yards, if not going over that. He could also end up getting a lot closer to double-digit touchdowns—if Tank Bigsby stays healthy and doesn’t fumble the football.

All of the numbers that we see are numbers that have shown up for running backs right before breakout campaigns. And even though I’ve been hypercritical of Tank Bigsby in the past, the numbers last year—you can’t overlook them.

In 2025, he could be one of the best ADP values that we find all season.